As the second term of President Donald Trump begins, we know for certain that there will be changes in governance. The ultimate effect of his unconventional approach to the presidency on businesses, including the agriculture industry, is yet to be determined. On one hand, there is a push to deregulate and downsize the government. On the other hand, some of the cabinet picks could pose challenges to agriculture. With the unprecedented pressures on agriculture to produce more, we cannot stifle innovation.
The President has made it clear that he will focus on reducing regulations across the board. An Executive Order (EO) on January 31, 2025, reads in part, “whenever an agency promulgates a new rule, regulation, or guidance, it must identify at least 10 existing rules, regulations, or guidance documents to be repealed.” How will the deregulation ambitions square with his appointees?
Cabinet Appointments
The juxtaposition of the President’s plans against the atypical group of cabinet appointees should make for some interesting policy debates in the next four years. One of those appointees, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., (Secretary of Health and Human Services or HHS) is leading the “Make America Healthy Again” or MAHA initiative.
Kennedy was the president of the Waterkeeper Alliance, an environmental advocacy group. Waterkeeper opposes the expansion of fossil fuels, which is at odds with the President’s commitment to expand fossil fuels.
From Breakthrough Journal on December 13, 2024: “Altogether, an RFK-led HHS has the capacity to make life harder for agricultural producers, decrease food production, and increase food prices for the American consumer, all in the name of conspiratorial thinking and a poor understanding of both agronomy and economics. It will be important for Senators from agricultural states to oppose RFK’s nomination to head HHS.”
The article further states that Mr. Kennedy can alter pesticide use, curb biotechnology innovation, and potentially challenge Genetically Modified (GM) products already on the market. They also state that “he could still bring significant negative consequences for U.S. farmers and consumers.”
The President’s appointment of Ed Russo as Environmental Task Force Advisor is another atypical appointment for a Republican. In a recent webinar, he stated, “So farming is, I hope I’m not insulting anybody, but farming, believe it or not, is the biggest polluter in the world. Sorry, it’s just a fact.”
The EPA Administrator, Lee Zeldin said he anticipates cutting 65% of the EPA staff. This approach is in line with President Trump’s first term, which focused less on command and control and more on cooperative federalism. At the same time, Mr. Zeldin has expressed concerns about climate change, and while a member of Congress, he voted twice in favor of legislation to address per- and polyflouralkyl substances (PFAS). PFAS continues to be an important and potentially-consequential issue for agriculture (see Partners Fall 2023 and Fall 2024).
How Mr. Zeldin plans to address PFAS or climate concerns with reduced staff remains to be seen.
Unleashing Innovation
Over the years, we have covered agriculture’s largely unrecognized, remarkable accomplishments (see, for example, Partners October 2022). As our global population continues to grow, we must embrace and not handcuff innovation, especially in agriculture.
While we have experienced inflation in the past few years, as of 2022, in the United States, the share of expenditure spent on food versus total consumer expenditure was 6.7% (food bought for consumption at home). The next closest nation is Australia at 9.3%. Other countries spend 10% to as much as 59% of their income on food (Our World in Data).
Several factors allow us to use our money on pursuits other than basic nutrition. Make no mistake; the innovations in agriculture are indispensable for human flourishing.
The remarkable work of Norman Borlaug (The Green Revolution) in the 1950s using plant breeding techniques saved an estimated one billion lives globally. Innovations have continued over the years with the use of disease and drought-resistant crops.
These improvements, largely unrealized by most in society have continued. Consider that between 1910 and 2020, the U.S. population grew from approximately 90 million to more than 330 million. During the same period, agriculture more than quadrupled its output while requiring less labor. In 1900, 41% of Americans worked in agriculture; now, it is less than 2% (Breakthrough Journal).
Agriculture uses approximately 80% of the water in the western United States. However, for perspective consider that in California (which accounts for one-third of the vegetables and three-fourths of the nuts in the US), agricultural water use in 2015 was 14% less than in 1980, while economic output from farming was up 38%.
Innovative water management practices are evident in Las Vegas as well. Total water use has fallen by 26 billion gallons since 2002 even as they have added nearly one million new residents (Human Progress, September 21, 2022).
Agriculture, like all businesses, faces many environmental challenges. For agriculture, some of the more immediate concerns include managing nutrients and avoiding impacting groundwater and surface water. The PFAS issue, especially in biosolids and source water, will continue to be one of the more significant challenges for agriculture.
Business as usual is not likely what we will see over the next four years. Regardless of the administration, it is always a good practice to keep a pulse on developing agricultural/ environmental policies. As the administration focuses on Making America Great Again and Making America Healthy Again, we need to be part of the discussion to keep agriculture great.
To view the spring 2025 issue of Partners magazine in its entirety, click here.
