Interest in Home Gardening on the Rise
Interest in home gardening continues to rise despite concerns about the economy and inflation, according to the 2025 Axiom Gardening Outlook Study.
However, it is tapering off, as survey respondents saying they spent more time gardening in 2024 dropped 10.9% from last year. In addition, respondents planning to plant more and expand their gardens in 2025 dropped 8.8% from last year.
“This is the first year since we launched the Axiom Gardening Outlook Study that we’ve observed decreases in time spent gardening and plans to plant more and expand their gardens,” says Mike Reiber, founder and CEO of Axiom Marketing, a Minneapolis-based marketing firm serving horticultural, agricultural, and home improvement markets.
“These decreases indicate a potential leveling that merits further investigation,” he adds. “Despite these decreases, however, 4 in 10 respondents say they plan to spend more money on gardening in 2025 and plan to spend more time gardening in 2025.”
Michigan’s greenhouse industry, which largely consists of annual bedding plants – pots, flat containers and hanging baskets – is dominated by wholesale sales through brokers who supply retailers.
Wisconsin greenhouse growers focus more on regional retail sales. But some Michigan growers also ship to northeast Wisconsin.
Consumers Growing their own Food
Overall, the future of the nursery industry locally appears to have a positive outlook, with expected growth, active industry collaboration, and a focus on innovation and sustainability, according to the study. However, nurseries will need to navigate challenges such as thin margins and changing labor laws while capitalizing on opportunities in sustainable practices and market expansion.
“I don’t think anybody's projecting a great year, as the outlook is shifting into a new reality of post-pandemic sales – more like 2019 levels,” says Sara Trattles, Vice President of Commercial Lending for GreenStone Farm Credit Services.
The industry benefited in 2020 when Covid-19 forced people to stay home, creating a surge in lawn and garden spending. As most of the country shut down, garden centers (after some legislative debate) were allowed to open. Working from home, consumers had a larger discretionary income amplified by government stimulus money.
The disruption of the supply chain and the availability of products also enticed some consumers to grow more of their own food.
“That trend definitely flowed into 2021 and probably 2022 with people starting habits while being at home more,” Trattles says. “It’s really hard to say if people will pull back and spend less as we head into the planting season.”
The new administration’s focus on health and wellness may offer a glimmer of hope, she says. “Consumers are finicky, but I do think it’s plausible -- whether it’s gardening in the ground or container gardening – that it could be beneficial for the industry.
Nurseries to Experience Continued Growth
For the nursery industry, Trattles is cautiously optimistic. “It seems like the nurseries I work with are filling up on inventory, as they’re having a lot of calls from contractors, who are just starting the season.”
New builds, with budgets already approved, will be more reliable customers than those who are considering updates, she notes. “Housing numbers are low, and should they continue with high-end landscaping, or can they get by with less? Long-term prospects are uncertain due to economic fluctuations.”
A lot of people are trying to decipher what President Trump’s new tariffs will mean to the economy in general.
Michigan is the third largest producer of floriculture crops and the largest young plant producer in the United States with a total crop value of $711 million, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2022. The state also ranks third in the U.S. for Christmas tree production and 16th in national nursery stock sales (2019), bringing the total combined value of all ornamental crops to $850 million.
Horticulture production in Wisconsin, which includes greenhouses, nursery, and floriculture production, is composed of some 1,508 enterprises distributed across the state, according to Steven Deller, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, and the Center for Community Economic Development at the University of Wisconsin—Madison. Total sales in 2017 were about $195.6 million employing 2,000 people with total payment to workers (inclusive of proprietor or owner income) of $112.9 million. Most are smaller or mid-sized operations, with 55.2% having sales of less than $50,000 and 6.2% have sales of greater than $500,000.
For the U.S. greenhouse industry, according to the study, robust growth is expected over the next decade. With greenhouse market size reaching $60-70 billion by the mid-2030s, the industry presents significant opportunities for investors, entrepreneurs, and existing operators.
