The outlook for the egg industry hinges largely on balancing supply and demand, which has been greatly disrupted by the deadly number of avian flu cases in the United States.
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is found in an array of wildlife and domestic animals – most recently affecting cats. The national outbreak, which started in January 2022, continues and has now claimed more than 166 million birds nationwide, reports the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.
Avian flu has claimed almost 7.2 million birds in Michigan, including 6.5 million from commercial egg-laying operation in April 2024. As a result, Michigan’s egg laying flock of 11.4 million birds was down 31% from the previous year in December 2024, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.
The state’s production figures followed, falling 32% year-over-year to 278 million eggs.
Effects of HPAI in Michigan and Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, the outbreak started in March 2022 with a commercial egg-laying operation of 2.75 million hens. It has not had an egg-laying operation since but has had 16 commercial turkey operations with 683,000 turkeys depopulated.
HPAI is a highly contagious virus that spreads in various ways from flock to flock, including by wild birds, through contact with infected animals, by equipment, and on the clothing and shoes of farmworkers. It is extremely lethal, killing 90% to 100% of chickens, often within 48 hours, according to the CDC. Once it is detected, the whole flock must be depopulated, according to a federal mandate.
Since December 2024 there has an uptick in cases across the country, especially in egg-laying operations. The USDA reported that approximately 18.8 million commercial egg layers were affected by HPAI in January 2025.
Ohio is the hotspot in the U.S. for avian flu right now. It has lost more than 15 million birds to HPAI since mid-December 2024 on commercial operations, according to the CDC. It’s the most of any state.
“For consumers, egg availability has been limited, and prices have soared,” says Brandon Leep, Vice President of Agribusiness Lending for GreenStone Farm Credit Services. “For producers who have eggs to sell, it has meant record profits the last three years. Producers don’t like the idea of benefitting at the expense of other producers, but that’s what has happened with avian flu.”
After a relatively quiet summer and fall, avian flu once again made its way into Michigan poultry, with six Ottawa County commercial turkey operations testing positive in December, according to the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development.
“Producers were already practicing high biosecurity protocols, but everyone is looking at what more can be done to protect flocks,” Leep adds. “There's still a lot of unknowns about how it is spread. It could be airborne, or on trucks, wild birds and people.”
The tightened supply and rising egg prices came at a time when Michigan producers were working to comply with the state’s cage-free egg law, which passed in 2019 and took effect Jan. 1, 2025.
The timing coincided with rising egg prices and customers saw signs posted at supermarkets explaining the cage-free requirement.
Currently in Michigan, the average price for a dozen eggs is around $6, with some northern Michigan consumers paying as much as $10. Prior to the outbreak, egg prices averaged $1.79 per dozen in 2021.
According to a new forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) egg prices in Michigan, Wisconsin and across the U.S. are expected to go up 41% by the end of 2025.
To help address the situation, the U.S. is stepping up egg imports and boosting support to chicken farmers to combat its worst-ever outbreak.
Looking to the Future
The nation will look to import between 70 million and 100 million eggs during the next month or two, the USDA recently announced as part of its five-part plan to address bird flu. The Trump administration’s strategy also involves helping farmers protect birds from catching the virus and quickly rebuilding populations after chickens are killed or culled.
While the industry isn’t ready to start vaccinating birds, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollin said it will increase research into immunization and roll back regulations to help cut costs.
An avian influenza vaccine for chickens manufactured by Zoetis received conditional approval from the USDA Center for Veterinary Biologics (CVB) on February 14. However, there is concern for the impact on trade.
In a February 13 letter to the USDA, the co-chairs of the Congressional and Senate Chicken Caucuses wrote that “vaccination in any poultry sector – egg layers, turkeys, broilers, or ducks – will jeopardize the entire export market for all U.S. poultry products.”
“The problem is that most U.S. trading partners do not recognize countries that vaccinate as free of HPAI due to concerns that vaccines can mask the presence of the virus,” the letter continued.
“The potential export losses that are likely to occur as a result of vaccination would have a devastating impact on thousands of family farmers who raise the birds.”
A conditional license is valid for a finite period and used to meet an emergency condition, limited market, local situation or other special circumstance. The vaccine must still receive final approval from USDA before it can be used in commercial poultry.
Among those supportive of the development of HPAI vaccines are the National Turkey Federation (NTF), United Egg Producers (UEP), International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) and National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF). Leaders from the four organizations recently wrote to Secretary Rollins, requesting a meeting with her to discuss their concerns and develop a “path forward.”
