Despite a slow, dry start to the growing season, Michigan and Wisconsin growers are expecting respectable corn and soybean yields on average. However, there are areas where the ‘saving rains’ skipped over and drought dug into yields.
“But, overall, things seem to have bounced back pretty well,” says Collin Nurenberg, a GreenStone Farm Credit Services Financial Services Officer.
Nurenberg lives in Westphalia, northwest of Lansing, MI, and says there was a 50-day stretch from May into June where they had maybe an inch of rain.
“There's a lot of uneven crops out there, with stands not coming up right away due to how dry it was,” he says. “It doesn't look like it'll be a record-breaking year by any means, but all things considering, it looks like it'll be an average year, and that’s pretty good from where we started.”
In mid-August, USDA increased Michigan’s 2023 corn yield to 170 bushels per acre (bu/ac), up 1.2% from 2022-23. Nationally, corn yields were dropped 2.4 bu/ac to 175.1. Even so, USDA’s projection of 15.1 billion bushels, if realized, would be the second highest on record behind 2016-17.
Some forecasts have that yield even higher. A weighted average yield from Michigan’s Between the Rows Corn Tour is estimated at 179 bu/ac. The tour across the state reports to growers on 394 yield checks pulled in 36 counties, with a minimum of 10 fields per county.
Soybeans yields for Michigan are projected to average 46 bu/ac, a one-bushel decline from last year, with total production expected to decline 4% to 94 million bushels based on fewer planted acres.
“In June it was looking like there might not be much out there, so growers are probably contracted a little less from where they have been,” Nurenberg says. “So hopefully we can get a pretty good price rally here to take advantage of solid prices.”
Sanilac County insight
Scott Wilson is farming 1,650 acres of corn, winter wheat and soybeans with his dad and son in Lexington, Sanilac County.
Wilson, a board member of the Michigan Soybean Committee, says crop conditions right now look good in his area between Yale and Croswell., Mich., up against Lake Huron in the lower thumb region. “However, the same areas hurt by the early season drought are starting to show the effects of too much water in July/August,” he says. “White mold is starting to show up in soybeans, as the weather has been very conducive for the disease. It seems like we are running about 2 weeks behind where we should be at this point. This may be where we find out what the effects all the Canadian forest fire smoke has had on our growing season.”
Last year the farm averaged 38.3 bu/ac for soybeans and 171.7 bu/ac for corn. “I expect soybean and corn crop yields to be better than last year, but the effect of the white mold in soybeans may bring the yields closer to last year. Everyone seems to be thinking along the same lines. Getting this crop to maturity is top of mind right now.”
Harvest will probably be the biggest driver in the markets in the coming weeks, he adds.
Wisconsin corn and soy predictions
In Wisconsin, USDA reported the corn condition was 59 percent good to excellent the last week of August, up four percent from a week earlier, while 97 percent of the soybean crop was blooming or beyond and 88 percent had set pods. Soybean condition was 59 percent good to excellent, up three percent from last week.
Wisconsin corn production is forecast at 515 million bushels, down six percent from the previous year, according to USDA. Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average 166 bu/ac, down 14 bushels from last year. Of the four million acres of estimated corn planted, 3.10 million of the acres will be harvested for grain.
Wisconsin soybean production is forecast at 104 million bushels, down 11 percent from the previous year. The yield is forecast at 50 bu/ac a, four bushels lower than 2022. Soybean planted acreage is estimated at 2.10 million acres with 2.07 million acres to be harvested.
USDA increased the season-average farm price received by corn producers by 10 cents to $4.90 per bushel.
“This month’s 2023-24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, reduced trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month,” the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report read. “Foreign corn production is down, with cuts to the EU, China, and Russia partially offset by increases for Ukraine and Canada.”
With soybean exports down 25 million bushels on lower supplies and crush unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price forecast is now $12.70 per bushel, up 30 cents from last month.
Corn markets may get a bit of a boost in demand, “as livestock prices have looked pretty good lately, especially in the cattle markets,” Nurenberg says. “That may help us use up some of those corn inventories for feed. It may help bring that market back up because I know corn has been lagging quite a bit.”
For the September through November fall season, State Climatologist Jeff Andresen says the outlook calls for near- to above-normal mean temperatures and for normal- to below-normal precipitation totals.
“Collectively, while these outlooks may suggest some continuing issues with late growing season water shortages in some parts of the state, they would also offer some real benefits for areas recovering from recent heavy rains, for later maturing crops, and for fall harvest and other fieldwork activities,” Andresen says.
